The point-predictive Distribution - Separating Epistemic and Aleatory Uncertainty

The point-predictive Distribution - Separating Epistemic and Aleatory Uncertainty#

We will demonstrate how we can separate epistemic and aleatory uncertainty.

Example (Quadratic)#

Let’s repeat what we did above with a quadratic example. Here are some synthetic data:

np.random.seed(12345)

num_obs = 10
x = -1.0 + 2 * np.random.rand(num_obs)
w0_true = -0.5
w1_true = 2.0
w2_true = 2.0
sigma_true = 0.1
y = (
    w0_true
    + w1_true * x
    + w2_true * x ** 2
    + sigma_true * np.random.randn(num_obs)
)

fig, ax = plt.subplots()
ax.plot(x, y, 'x', label='Observed data')
ax.set_xlabel('$x$')
ax.set_ylabel('$y$')
plt.legend(loc='best', frameon=False)
sns.despine(trim=True);

../_images/abe9aa9b1677c695ca56a31c3d01404da19ef9af3360d74f1ff092cd18fd6520.svg

Let’s also copy-paste the code from previous hands-on activities for generating the design matrix and fitting the models.

import scipy

def get_polynomial_design_matrix(x, degree):
    """Return the polynomial design matrix of ``degree`` evaluated at ``x``.
    
    Arguments:
    x      -- A 2D array with only one column.
    degree -- An integer greater than zero.
    """
    assert isinstance(x, np.ndarray), 'x is not a numpy array.'
    assert x.ndim == 2, 'You must make x a 2D array.'
    assert x.shape[1] == 1, 'x must be a column.'
    cols = []
    for i in range(degree+1):
        cols.append(x ** i)
    return np.hstack(cols)

def get_fourier_design_matrix(x, L, num_terms):
    """Fourier expansion with ``num_terms`` cosines and sines.
    
    Arguments:
    x          --  A 2D array with only one column.
    L          --  The "length" of the domain.
    num_terms  --  How many Fourier terms do you want.
                   This is not the number of basis
                   functions you get. The number of basis functions
                   is 1 + num_terms / 2. The first one is a constant.
    """
    assert isinstance(x, np.ndarray), 'x is not a numpy array.'
    assert x.ndim == 2, 'You must make x a 2D array.'
    assert x.shape[1] == 1, 'x must be a column.'
    N = x.shape[0]
    cols = [np.ones((N, 1))]
    for i in range(int(num_terms / 2)):
        cols.append(np.cos(2 * (i+1) * np.pi / L * x))
        cols.append(np.sin(2 * (i+1) * np.pi / L * x))
    return np.hstack(cols)
                    
def get_rbf_design_matrix(x, x_centers, ell):
    """Radial basis functions design matrix.
    
    Arguments:
    x        --  The input points on which you want to evaluate the
                 design matrix.
    x_center --  The centers of the radial basis functions.
    ell      --  The lengthscale of the radial basis function.
    """
    assert isinstance(x, np.ndarray), 'x is not a numpy array.'
    assert x.ndim == 2, 'You must make x a 2D array.'
    assert x.shape[1] == 1, 'x must be a column.'
    N = x.shape[0]
    cols = [np.ones((N, 1))]
    for i in range(x_centers.shape[0]):
        cols.append(np.exp(-(x - x_centers[i]) ** 2 / ell))
    return np.hstack(cols)

def find_m_and_S(Phi, y, sigma2, alpha):
    """Return the posterior mean and covariance of the weights
    of a Bayesian linear regression problem.
    
    Arguments:
    Phi    -- The design matrix.
    y      -- The observed targets.
    sigma2 -- The noise variance.
    alpha  -- The prior weight precision.
    """
    A = (
        Phi.T @ Phi / sigma2
        + alpha * np.eye(Phi.shape[1])
    )
    L = scipy.linalg.cho_factor(A)
    m = scipy.linalg.cho_solve(
        L,
        Phi.T @ y / sigma2
    )
    S = scipy.linalg.cho_solve(
        L,
        np.eye(Phi.shape[1])
    )
    return m, S

Fit a $7$ degree polynomial:

As we discussed in the video, it is possible to get the posterior point predictive distribution for $y$ conditioned on $x$ and to separate aleatory from epistemic uncertainty. The posterior point predictive is:

s^{2} (x) = ϕ (x)^{T} S ϕ (x) + σ^{2} .

$σ^{2}$ corresponds to the measurement noise.
$ϕ (x)^{T} S ϕ (x)$ is the epistemic uncertainty induced by limited data.

Here is how to visualize both of these:

../_images/ebcdef787bc685346d7686c2f65bb4c9c88a2169f351bf749be5b524fed311da.svg

Questions#

Rerun the code cells above with a very small $α$ . What happens?
Rerun he code cells above with a very big $α$ . What happens?
Fix $α$ to $5$ and rerun the code cells above with a very small and very big value for $σ$ . What happens in each case

The point-predictive Distribution - Separating Epistemic and Aleatory Uncertainty

Contents

The point-predictive Distribution - Separating Epistemic and Aleatory Uncertainty#

Example (Quadratic)#

Questions#